Interval estimation of the number of participants of mass protest actions
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Abstract
A brief literature review on the issue of modeling mass protest actions has been carried out. It is shown that the study of this public phenomenon was begun at the end of the XIX century. At present, there are two directions in this problem. The first is a sociological and the second, in which mass protest actions have been the subject of study by methods of operations research. It is shown that at present there is such a source of influence as social networks. This circumstance must be considered when constructing mathematical models of mass protest actions. The function of the elasticity of the level of social tension in society by the magnitude of the relative level of GDP is built for a model that establishes a relationship between the level of GDP and the level of social tension. It is shown that the relative increment of the level of GDP decreases the relative level of social tension. The system of nonlinear differential equations describing the time variation of the relative number of participants in mass protest action has been considered. The method approximate calculations were used to determine the errors of the numerical values of the variables and parameters of the model. It is shown that these methods lead to the complication of the model identification process. The methods of interval calculations with the numbers determined in the center – radius system are used to simplify the determination of errors. An expression for the power function is obtained for the arguments specified in the center – radius system. Interval estimation of the number of participants in mass protest actions is carried out to estimate the model. The obtained results make it possible to predict the proportion of people participating in mass protest actions. They may also be law enforcement agencies to plan security activities during mass protest actions.
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References
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